This economy is looking a little more complicated for some retailers. Another factor that will soon be in the mix? Student debt.
More than three years ago, the federal government said the 45 million borrowers with federal student loan debt could pause paying it back. And many borrowers put those loan payments on hold, instead saving or spending the money. Some of the beneficiaries: retailers that had things they wanted to buy.
The student loan pause is set to end later this year. While that will of course have ramifications for the individual borrowers, it’ll also impact the places where they shop.
Before the government paused her payments, 38-year-old Kate Campbell had been shelling out about $700 a month on debt she accrued while getting her MBA.”Yeah,” she said, laughing. “A lot.”
Back in 2017, the Federal Reserve estimated the average monthly student loan payment was $393. When Campbell could stop payments in March 2020, she did so and was able to save some of that money.
She also spent some. She got married in a tiny COVID wedding and bought a 100-year-old house in Baltimore, which brought with it other expenses.
“We had to spend a lot of money on paint because the house was painted all these crazy colors. And paint is surprisingly expensive,” she said.
Campbell and her husband did the painting themselves but still spent over $1,000 at Home Depot and Benjamin Moore. They also bought furniture — some used, but some new too. “I mean, nothing, like, supercrazy. Mostly Target,” Campbell said.
There are other things she would buy, like new windows, but she’s holding off because she knows debt payments are scheduled to resume.
That may be true for other borrowers too, said Simon Moore, an independent financial consultant.
“The more discretionary choices that people make may come under a little bit more pressure,” he said.
That’ll affect all the businesses where borrowers have been choosing to spend. “Everything ranging from Tesla to your local bistro,” said Constantine Yannelis, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago.
That spending will decrease, he said, adding that when student loan payments come due again, many borrowers won’t repay them at all.
“So, I think we’re gonna see delinquencies and defaults spike,” Yannelis said. “That’s going to damage credit scores and potentially have very long-term impacts.”
Which could affect borrowers’ ability to do things like buy a house.
Kate Campbell said she’s worried about how she’ll make it all work once her debt payments resume. “It’s just so much of, like, a mental load trying to plan your life with this always lingering in the back of your head,” she said.
On the current schedule, payment obligations are likely to resume no later than the end of August.
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