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The NBA trade winds are picking up force, and they're about to send the rumor mill spinning out of control.
It's a bit of a late start to the process given the delayed opening of the 2020-21 campaign, but it could be a sprint from here on through to the March 25 trade deadline.
Several big trade dominoes have already dropped—most recently, Derrick Rose reuniting with Tom Thibodeau on the New York Knicks (much to Jimmy Butler's delight)—but that hasn't slowed the chatter one bit.
Since trade talks aren't always trustworthy, we're breaking down the latest whispers here to buy the substantial reports and sell the smokescreens.
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The Toronto Raptors have relatively recovered from their disastrous 2-8 start, but they still seem a tier (or more) behind the East's elite. They sit a good-not-great 10th in net rating and have thrown up all kinds of caution flags with a 3-9 record against opponents with a .500-plus record.
If this is as good as it can get, Toronto might have to start thinking more about tomorrow than today. Some within the organization are reportedly ready to make that change by trading away six-time All-Star—and 34-year-old unrestricted-free-agent-to-be—Kyle Lowry.
"There is a portion of Raptors personnel, league sources said, that believes the franchise should bid its beloved All-Star farewell and begin Toronto's next chapter in earnest," B/R's Jake Fischer reported.
Trading Lowry would sting on multiple fronts and, assuming the return package would be future-focused, drop the ceiling on the current campaign by several stories. But if the Raptors aren't contending for a title anyway, what's the real harm in that? Sometimes sound business thinking requires the embrace of a backward step to eventually pave a path to greater forward progress.
Toronto could brighten its future in multiple ways. The most obvious would be the incoming collection of assets, which would not be insignificant. Even as a 34-year-old rental, Lowry's impact as a scorer, shooter, defender and on-court conductor could convince a contender like the Los Angeles Clippers or a contending hopeful like the Miami Heat to open the war chest.
But there's also the added exposure for the Raptors' up-and-comers that Lowry's absence would create. He is tops on the team in assists and third in points and minutes. Tasking players like Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Terence Davis and Malachi Flynn with replacing that production might be a way to fast-track their ascensions.
Toronto obviously shouldn't give Lowry away. But if someone puts up an offer in line with his stature and statistics, it might be time to end this Raptors era for good.
Verdict: Buy, even though the idea hits us—and surely all of the North—right in the #Feelz.
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When the Boston Celtics sensed a split from Kyrie Irving was inevitable in 2019, they quickly pivoted to Kemba Walker as a suitable replacement. But they never addressed the void created when Al Horford exited the same summer, nor the one that opened up when Gordon Hayward bolted out of Beantown this offseason.
They haven't been entirely forced out of the heavyweight ranks due to the superstar ascensions of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but they look a few players short of where they were (and, more importantly, where they're trying to go). The Celtics probably won't stumble into a new Horford or Hayward between now and the deadline, but they're reportedly targeting those positions on the trade market.
"League sources have long said Boston is searching for upgrades to bolster its wing and big man position," The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported.
The Celtics are sitting on a $28.5 million traded player exception (the largest in NBA history), all their future first-round picks and prospects like Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith. There may not be enough ammunition for a superstar swap, but if Tatum and Brown are scratching that itch anyway, Boston should be on the hunt for size, shooting and consistency in its support staff.
Boston has played in three of the past four Eastern Conference finals, but it hasn't reached the Association's championship round since Doc Rivers was running the show in 2010. Tatum and Brown can keep the Celtics within striking distance, but they'll need more help to cross that threshold.
Verdict: Buy. Celtics president Danny Ainge is nicknamed "Trader Dan" for a reason, and he has holes to fill with this roster.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't been wiped out of the playoff race, but the past two weeks have pulled most every positive vibe out of Northeast Ohio.
Since knocking off the Brooklyn Nets in consecutive contests on Jan. 20 and 22, the Cavaliers have won just two of their last 10 games. And those victories came against the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, the league's only clubs with winning percentages of .250 or worse. Cleveland's net rating over this stretch is an NBA-worst minus-13.0 points per 100 possessions.
Trade vultures are starting to circle this squad in hopes of a fire sale commencing. If that happens, the Cavaliers could answer the frontcourt needs of several clubs.
Andre Drummond has suitors, with the Raptors among them, per O'Connor. Larry Nance Jr. could fetch "a significant return" if Cleveland traded him away. Teams are monitoring JaVale McGee, too. The only big man who doesn't seem to have a market is the most decorated of the bunch: Kevin Love, a five-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA selection.
"Kevin Love will need to prove he can stay healthy before anyone would trade for him and the $60.2 million remaining on his contract after this season," O'Connor reported.
All of this aces the smell test.
Drummond has never played better, and even with his offensive limitations, his rebounding and paint protection would strengthen a contender's frontcourt. Nance offers a wealth of two-way versatility, so if the Cavs do let him go, they should ask for the moon and not settle for much less. McGee has size, length and championship experience. Love's contract is colossally cost-prohibitive when he hasn't seen the floor since late December.
Cleveland could be one of the trade season's biggest sellers, but Love seems likely to stick around through at least the offseason due to a lack of interest.
Verdict: Fully buying on both fronts.
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The Chicago Bulls thought they were a few role-playing pieces away from the playoffs in 2019, so they added Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky to be their veteran accelerators.
So far, no good.
The Bulls didn't make the bubble cutoff last season, and if this campaign ended today, they'd be left out of the play-in tournament. Their frontcourt has been ripped apart by injuries, and their offense has struggled to find stability beyond Zach LaVine.
Young has been a bright spot, posting personal bests in field-goal percentage (59.0) and assists per game (4.4) along with the second-highest player efficiency rating of his career (18.6). But the Bulls have between now and March 25 to decide how much that matters when the 32-year-old's timeline is so far removed from that of the young core.
Teams apparently think—or at least hope—Chicago could decide that selling is its best path forward.
Buyers are "increasingly looking" at the Windy City for upgrades with Young "drawing the most interest," per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. He also noted there's been "no indication" that Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas has any interest in selling.
The interest in Young isn't the least bit surprising. He's a sturdy veteran with the skills, smarts, experience and versatility to perk up any frontcourt and adjust to new surroundings on the fly. It's hard to imagine there are many (if any) forward rotations that wouldn't look better with him in the mix.
Some might spin that as a rationale for Chicago keeping him, but what exactly are the Bulls competing for any time soon? If they're playing the long game—as their record suggests they should—they'd get the most mileage by moving Young for assets and freeing up as many frontcourt minutes as possible for up-and-comers Patrick Williams, Daniel Gafford and (when healthy) Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.
Verdict: Buy interest in Thaddeus Young, sell Chicago being unwilling to let him go.
All stats current through games played on Feb. 8 and used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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