NBA scouts are starting to get a better feel for the projected 2021 draft field.
Cancellations of major evaluation opportunities like the Nike Hoop Summit, McDonald's All-American Game and Jordan Classic had scouts feeling less familiar than usual with the incoming freshmen. But one month into the college basketball season, they're starting to see a clearer picture and acquire more intel.
They're still anxiously waiting for more opportunities to evaluate the G League Ignite team, which just started scrimmaging. Otherwise, scouts sound more confident about the top of the projected 2021 draft board than they did about 2020's.
It hasn't been all positive, however, and scouts are in the midst of deciding whether some struggling freshmen just need more time. Otherwise, just as Obi Toppin broke out last year upon his return to college, another sophomore appears to be on the rise to help give the class an extra boost.
Scout: Gonzaga's Jalen Suggs is like Russell Wilson
Scouts were already visualizing Suggs moving up the board after three games against Kansas, Auburn and West Virginia. But in some of their minds, his 27 points on seven three-point makes against Iowa lifted the 6'4" guard into a tier that seemingly felt closed to just Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham, the presumed 2021 No. 1 pick.
One scout told Bleacher Report that Suggs, a high-school quarterback and the 2019-20 Minnesota Football Player of the Year, reminded him of Seattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson, who was first drafted by the Colorado Rockies.
The comparison wasn't just about their multisport achievements. Suggs' maturity, toughness, leadership and command of an offense/game mirror Wilson's behind center.
On the nation's No. 1 team, which is largely made up of sophomores, juniors and seniors, it's a freshman running the show. Suggs' competitiveness also popped in the West Virginia game when he returned in the second half after suffering what looked like a scary Achilles injury.
Aside from his athleticism and numbers—15.1 points, 5.9 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 2.6 steals per game on 55.6 percent shooting from the field and a 48.0 three-point percentage—scouts can't stop raving about Suggs' intangibles.
Cunningham has lived up to the monster hype early, leaving no room for doubt over his NBA upside. But according to some scouts, Suggs has entered the group chat of No. 1 overall candidates.
Pressure Mounting on Kentucky Prospects
Kentucky is 1-6, and history tells us to give it time before reacting to the early play of freshmen. But scouts are officially worried about the Wildcats' biggest names in Brandon Boston Jr. and Terrence Clarke.
While Boston, who arrived at Kentucky known for his shot-making, is 5-of-32 from three, scouts are questioning his ability to create much separation. According to Synergy Sports, he's a combined 4-of-17 between isolation and pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions and 0-of-9 on contested catch-and-shoot jumpers.
With 16 turnovers to nine assists, Boston hasn't flashed any playmaking skills, either, which only enhances the concern tied to his scoring struggles.
Meanwhile, Clarke is playing out of position as a primary initiator, a role that's exposing his poor feel as a facilitator and decision-maker. Averaging 3.0 turnovers to 1.9 assists, he's also had trouble making outside shots (5-of-22 on threes) and free throws (47.1 percent). One scout noted he didn't see Clarke as a first-rounder.
Kentucky and its prospects have enough opportunities on the schedule to change the narrative. But the pressure is on, particularly for Boston and Clarke, because scouts are starting to view their inept play as problematic, not just the product of early-season jitters.
Scouts Questioning Appeal to G League Professional Path Program
The G League finally got its professional path program going after signing potential top-five picks Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, as well as other touted recruits in Daishen Nix, Isaiah Todd and Kai Sotto. But scouts are already starting to sound frustrated by their limited early access and the Ignite team's lack of legitimate gameplay.
So far, the team has had two real scrimmages behind closed doors. Some teams Bleacher Report has spoken with haven't received the film yet. Others aren't sure how much stock to put into what they've watched. The G League veteran team blew out Ignite by 26 points in their second matchup.
The Athletic's Shams Charania reported that the Ignite will participate in a shortened season in February at Orlando's Disney campus, and the initial plan has teams set to play 12-15 games. Until then, there won't be much for scouts to see or opportunities for the Ignite players to strengthen their draft stock. Unless they make the playoffs, they could wind up playing half as many games as college squads.
The college basketball season continues to roll along with a handful of prospects using the NCAA platform to improve their reputation and stock.
It's too early to say whether this G League experiment will be a success or bust. The program's goal was to accommodate both NBA teams and prospects.
So far, scouts don't sound confident it's going to help them get a better read on the players. And while the players are getting paid, they aren't receiving the same national exposure and game reps as Cunningham, Suggs, Evan Mobley and other projected one-and-done college freshmen.
Scouts Buying Connecticut's James Bouknight
On breakout watch entering the season, Bouknight is delivering on raised expectations. His skills look sharper and his bag appears deeper, a development that was most noticeable during his 40-point outburst against Creighton.
He now has scouts digging deeper into his background after most overlooked the freshman flashes.
A scoring ball-handler, Bouknight is already 9-of-18 on pull-ups and 11-of-29 from three after making just 17 of 58 dribble jumpers and 0.9 threes per game last season. He's taken his shot-making to another level, and though his assist rate hasn't budged much (1.5 per game), scouts don't sound concerned, acknowledging his role and Connecticut's need for his self-creation and scoring.
Based on conversations with scouts and personal evaluation, I've moved Bouknight into the lottery of our latest mock draft as a starting point. But he should have room to rise even further up the board.
Love for Florida State's Scottie Barnes
It was unclear how Barnes' unconventional game would be received by scouts this season.
Despite his unique style and effectiveness through high school and FIBA competitions, there have been questions about the NBA trajectory and upside of a player with his particular offensive weaknesses. Through seven NCAA games, he's shown limited self-creation for scoring while making five of 18 threes and shooting 42.3 percent from the free-throw line.
Yet scouts sound drawn to the 6'9", 227-pound freshman who leads the team in both assists (4.3) and steals per game (1.7) while working as a transition and pick-and-roll ball-handler and multiposition defender capable of picking up full-court. Though he'll lose the point-wing label he began to earn in high school, he fits the mold of an NBA playmaking 4 with believable versatility to guard bigs, wings and ball-handlers.
He's surprised them athletically, as well, rising up high for dunks off drives and reaching ridiculous heights above the rim. And they've praised his positive energy and excitement for teammates' success, citing how highly current and former coaches talk about his character.
There is also now a lot of confidence in Florida State and its recent track record of producing pros like Patrick Williams, Devin Vassell, Jonathan Isaac, Malik Beasley, Dwayne Bacon and Mfiondu Kabengele.
Other Notes
- Texas is on the verge of sending two bigs to the NBA in the same draft. Kai Jones has made an impression on scouts given how he's using his athleticism for finishing and shot-blocking while flashing enough shooting touch to create hope in his jump shot. And Greg Brown, who started out shaky, turned heads with 24 points, 14 boards and three blocks versus Cunningham and Oklahoma State. Though clearly raw (19 turnovers and one assist this season), Brown wows with quickness and bounce, and he's made 10 threes over his last five games.
- Scouts sound frustrated over the foot injury to Duke's Jalen Johnson, who has them guessing on how far away he is as a shooter. His athleticism, strength, ball-handling and defensive versatility hint at unique upside, but his stock takes a hit if he doesn't project as a half-court scorer. There is still no word on when he will return.
- Real Madrid's Usman Garuba started slow, and it looked like the arrow was pointing down for the defensive/energy specialist who struggled to score. But in December, he's made eight of 10 threes, a development worth monitoring as we move into the new year.
- Keep an eye on Texas Tech's Terrence Shannon Jr. after he opened conference play with a pair of 20-point efforts. The explosive slasher, two-point scorer and quick defender is starting to make outside shots to strengthen his case as a first-round pick.
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NBA Draft Buzz: Who Scouts Are Buying and Selling in 2021 - Bleacher Report
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