Column: Hedge fund oil selling runs its course: Kemp - Reuters

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Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, in Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S., March 24, 2016. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Portfolio managers sold petroleum for the eighth week in 10, but the sales were smaller than before, suggesting the recent bout of profit taking was drawing to a close.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 15 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the seven days to Aug. 24 (https://tmsnrt.rs/3mTbJ5L).

Total sales over the last 10 weeks reached 268 million barrels, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In common with the pattern since mid-June, the change was primarily driven by selling former bullish long positions (-19 million barrels), rather than initiation of new bearish shorts (which were cut by -4 million barrels).

The most recent week saw small buying in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+5 million barrels) but sales in Brent (-9 million), U.S. gasoline (-5 million), U.S. diesel (-3 million) and European gas oil (-4 million).

The combined position across all six contracts fell to 677 million barrels (in the 60th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from a recent peak of 945 million (85th percentile) on June 15.

The ratio of bullish long positions to bearish short ones contracted to 4.25:1 (58th percentile) from a peak of 6:06:1 (80th percentile) 10 weeks ago.

The bullishness of late spring and early summer has ebbed away as a result of rising coronavirus infection rates in all the major oil-consuming regions.

Governments are now expected to retain border quarantines through the northern hemisphere winter, which will delay the recovery in international passenger aviation until 2022.

Many corporations are also pushing back the date for a return to central office working in response to the new wave of infections, which will also dampen the recovery in oil consumption.

Business-related long-haul flying is unlikely to resume while corporations are still reluctant to re-open their offices fully.

But the rate of sales has slowed, suggesting the bull-market correction had nearly run its course by early last week, and prices have since moved steadily higher.

For oil consumption, the overall picture is of a full recovery postponed, but not derailed.

Related columns:

- Hedge funds’ bullishness on oil ebbs away (Reuters, Aug. 23) read more

- Oil price path depends on pandemic’s next phase (Reuters, Aug. 20) read more

- Oil prices hammered by surge in coronavirus cases (Reuters, Aug. 19) read more

- Coronavirus flare-ups delay full oil demand recovery (Reuters, Aug. 17) read more

Reporting by John Kemp; Editing by Susan Fenton

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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